Historical Exclusion as the Primary Driver of Ethnic Conflict in South Sudan: Evidence from an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Haja RAJAONARISON

Japan Society for International Development

Meiji Gakuin University

https://pub.confit.atlas.jp/en/event/jasid2026spring/presentation/1C04

This paper uses an agent-based model to show that in South Sudan, exclusion drives displacement more than grievance or violence, and only full structural inclusion, not elite pacts, can reduce it.